After seven strikes on cargo ships near NATO members Romania and Bulgaria last month, the US-led alliance said it would deploy maritime patrol aircraft, radars and drones to reinforce its eastern flank in the Black Sea. Three days later, on October 23, another ship was struck just outside Romanian waters. Last week a Greek container ship was sunk by naval drones in Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone.
The attacks show the maritime war between Russia and Ukraine widening into a challenge for NATO that has left littoral members such as Romania and Bulgaria exposed. Military analysts said they had little doubt the strikes were Russian. Shipping security firm Ambrey said a naval drone seen in video of the latest strike resembled a Russian variant. Sidharth Kaushal, a senior fellow at the London-based RUSI think-tank, said: "I think it's undeniably an escalation."
Russia denies targeting Ukraine's neighbours with drones and says European governments are escalating the war in Ukraine by supplying military aid. Russia's defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment.
Many of the ships hit in October were anchored near, or sailing to or from, a key Romanian canal used by Ukraine for exports. One was in Romanian territorial waters; the other eight were in Romania's or Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone.
Iulia Joja, director of the Black Sea programme at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, said Russia's attacks were taking into account the West's aversion to escalation. "This is about testing these red lines, with full awareness that we will do everything possible to take the most minimal measures," she said, comparing the pattern with Russian drone incursions into NATO airspace in recent years.
A NATO official said Russian actions aimed at dissuading allies from supporting Ukraine were a serious security threat, and that the alliance's commitment to defending all members, including those on the Black Sea, was "ironclad." The official said there was a clear need for cost-effective counter-drone capabilities, and that the alliance had already committed to investing more than $40 billion in such capabilities over the next five years.
For Romania, the Black Sea is a crucial trade route and home to the offshore Neptun Deep project, which is due to make the country the European Union's largest gas producer next year. A naval drone approached Neptun Deep in August. Bucharest has accused Russia of "systematic" strikes on civilian ships but has stopped short of attributing individual attacks, citing the need for forensic evidence. Sofia has not blamed Russia, but said some of the attacks seem to benefit it.
The strikes come as Washington reassesses its military presence in Europe while focusing on China. The United States withdrew 1,000 troops from Romania last year. A senior Romanian official said: "It's a moment in the transatlantic relationship that Putin likely wants to use." The official added that EU and NATO attention mattered and that their forces were currently focusing toward the north and the Baltics.
NATO has reinforced its enhanced forward presence for the Baltics and Poland. Joja said it had not done the same in Romania despite Bucharest's requests, and that Brussels and Washington still did not seem to have decided whether the Black Sea was fully part of the NATO commitment. The Romanian official highlighted Romania's pressing need for surface-to-air interceptors and radar systems. Joja said the limited supply of cheap interceptor weapons, worsened by the war in Iran, was a central problem for the West.
The surge in strikes has squeezed a major route for grain and oil exports used by Russia and Ukraine. Tomas Alexa, a senior analyst at Ambrey Analytics, said the two sides hit 317 merchant and other vessels in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov between May and October, more than four times the 74 vessels struck in the previous half-year. Ukraine carried out 137 attacks on ships compared with 92 Russian ones in the third quarter; in October, Russia hit 38 ships compared with five Ukrainian strikes, Ambrey said.
Russia exported 0.3 million metric tons of grain in September through the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, down from 4.74 million metric tons in the same month last year, according to Russian export data seen by Reuters. Ukraine suspended operations at its Black Sea ports in late July because of Russian attacks and diverted volumes to river ports on the Danube, then through Romania's Sulina Canal and southwards through Romania's section of the Black Sea. Even with that route, Ukraine's port grain exports fell to 0.81 million metric tons in September from 2.1 million a year earlier, government data showed. Naval analyst and former senior Ukrainian naval officer Andriy Ryzhenko said further cutting these volumes remained Russia's primary goal, with testing NATO as the secondary objective.
Last week's attack came as the defence ministers and military chiefs of Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey, the other NATO state on the Black Sea, met in Sofia. Turkey's defence minister, whose government is waiting for replies from Moscow and Kyiv on a narrow maritime ceasefire proposal, warned both sides against further attacks. Turkey controls warship transit through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles under the Montreux Convention.
Egypt, Turkey and India are among countries pushing for maritime ceasefires as global fuel and grain prices have soared. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Saturday there was growing international interest in a limited ceasefire. Russia has rejected a narrow maritime ceasefire, saying it would give Kyiv a respite. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said last month: "Everyone is talking about diesel and forgetting about grain. In a month or two, everyone will start talking about an agricultural crisis."