The final stage of the US midterm elections falls on Thursday night, when the first partial results may also appear. Romanian researcher Ioana Constantin-Bercean, an expert on the Middle East and US policy, argues that Donald Trump would still have a rare opening from 4 November until 3 January, when the new Congress takes office, even if Republicans lose control.
She says the entire House, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships are being decided, fixing his room for manoeuvre in the last two years of his term. For audiences watching the Strait of Hormuz, Kyiv or the eastern flank, she says the period before the new Congress is installed matters most. In her view, decisions that are hard to stop, from military strikes to major agreements, have their best chance in those eight weeks.
Constantin-Bercean recalls that presidents are not on the ballot but that Trump turned the vote into a referendum on himself. At a rally in Durant, Oklahoma, in early October, he said that if they did not win he would be impeached. She notes that Democrats lead the generic ballot by 8 to 9 points. RealClearPolling puts Democrats at 51.4% and Republicans at 43.2%, a stronger position than in 2018, when Democrats gained 41 House seats.
She cites Trump’s approval at 37% in the Silver Bulletin, the second-weakest reading before a midterm since 1946, with only Harry Truman lower. On the cost of living, 25% approve and 70% disapprove. Nate Silver’s model gives Democrats about a 95% chance of the House and 78% of the Senate. Early voting has passed 50 million ballots, a record for this type of election. On those figures, she says Republicans lose the House and the Senate leans Democratic.
She believes midterm polls usually land close to the final result. In 2022 the polling average was Republican plus 2.7 and the result was Republican plus 2.8. She says the accuracy problem appears when Trump himself is on the ballot: in 2016, 2020 and 2024, polls underestimated Republicans by 2 to 3 points because his voters respond less often. He is not on Tuesday’s ballot. A 3-point error would not change the House, she says, but it could change the Senate, where Democrats need four extra seats in states such as Texas, Kansas, Alaska, Ohio or South Carolina. After Lindsey Graham’s death in July, his sister Darline is tied 48–48 there with paediatrician Annie Andrews. In her judgment the House looks settled and the Senate is within the margin of error.
A Democratic House, she says, would bring subpoenas and investigations, including the cost of the war with Iran and a $400 million aircraft received from Qatar, while the Pentagon budget would be negotiated with Hakeem Jeffries. A Democratic Senate would also block nominations, including a possible Supreme Court seat; Clarence Thomas is 78 and Samuel Alito is 76. Impeachment could pass the House, but without 67 Senate votes it would remain a political gesture. With a Democratic Congress, she expects Trump to govern by executive order and defend himself in committees.
Starting from the assumption that he loses Congress, she expects him to become more active abroad as Democrats constrain him at home. Presidents who lose Congress in a second term usually shift to foreign policy, where they can decide alone. She cites Ronald Reagan after 1986 and the INF treaty, and Barack Obama after 2014 with the Iran nuclear deal, the JCPOA, and the opening to Cuba. She notes that exactly 16 years earlier, on 3 November, Obama lost 63 House seats and later said: “I'm not recommending for every future President that they take a shellacking like I did last night.” Trump, she adds, has an extra interval of about eight weeks after the vote and before the new Congress is seated.
She sets out three scenarios. Republicans keeping both chambers is the least likely, at about 4%: Trump would continue his legislative agenda and could attempt a second tax law and the federal voter-ID measure, the SAVE America Act, which is now blocked. Even then, Republicans have already voted against him on tariffs and war powers, and party discipline weakens as 2028 approaches.
Democrats winning the House while Republicans keep the Senate is put at about 25%: legislative gridlock, House investigations and subpoenas, and a budget negotiated with Democrats, while the Senate would still confirm Trump’s nominees, including judges, by a simple majority.
The most likely outcome, at about 70%, is Democrats winning both chambers. His nominations for ministers, ambassadors, judges and possibly a Supreme Court justice would then need a hostile Senate. Democrats could send bills he would veto, and an override would require two-thirds in both chambers, which she says they would not have.
She expects Mike Johnson to lose the House speakership and Hakeem Jeffries to become speaker. Jeffries has announced a first-100-days plan that includes cancelling Trump’s tariffs. It would not survive a veto, she says, but it would set the agenda and force Republicans to vote in public. The next campaign effectively begins on 4 November. Democrats have no clear favourite for the following presidential race, while Republicans have JD Vance and Marco Rubio. Vance has said he will decide after the elections together with Trump. He leads Republicans at 51%, and Rubio, at 31%, has promised to support him. A heavy defeat would tie Vance to an unpopular record, including the war with Iran. Among Democrats, a New York Times/Siena reading puts Kamala Harris at 12%, Gavin Newsom at 9% and Pete Buttigieg at 7%. A Democratic win on Tuesday in Texas or Kansas would widen the 2028 map; from the Democratic perspective, a blue Texas is the prize of presidential politics. Republicans already have an heir, she says, while Democrats have only aspirants.
On Iran and the Middle East, she says a Democratic Congress could not change much but could be sharper on the commercial truce with China. Iranian negotiators have been in Doha for three days. Marco Rubio says Trump has not decided on another round of strikes, and Trump has promised only that he will not strike before the vote. From January a Democratic Congress could condition the Pentagon budget — Senator Chris Murphy has said so explicitly — but it could not stop an operation. The trade truce with China runs until 10 January, and a new Trump–Xi meeting is possible at APEC in Shenzhen on 18–19 November. Washington is bipartisan on China, she says, and a Democratic Congress would be tougher on the chip industry.
On Europe, she says Congress, across both parties, has been Europe’s most consistent ally in Washington. When the Pentagon stopped the brigade rotation at Mihail Kogălniceanu, the Republican chairs of the defence committees protested publicly. Democrats promise statutory limits on withdrawing troops. On Russia and Ukraine, the first trilateral talks since February are announced for November. Democrats want rapid military aid and sanctions written into law so they cannot be lifted by decree, as happened on 16 October with measures in Lindsey Graham’s law. The risk, she says, is a hurried agreement before 3 January over Kyiv’s head.
Canada and South America could also shift if Democrats win Congress. Tariffs of 50% have been imposed on Canada and the USMCA is being renegotiated. The House has already voted to cancel the tariffs; the veto keeps them in force, but Ottawa now has an extra reason to wait. A Democratic Congress would demand an accounting for more than 240 deaths in strikes on boats in the Caribbean and for the oil agreement with Venezuela after Maduro. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, re-elected on 25 October, gains interlocutors in Washington.
Constantin-Bercean concludes that, in foreign policy, the elections change above all the cost and pace of Trump’s decisions. The direction remains at the White House, and the eight weeks can define his foreign-policy legacy.