Bulgarians will choose a new president on Sunday after a campaign centered on Russia’s war in Ukraine and widening hostilities in the Black Sea, including deadly drone attacks on commercial vessels off NATO members Romania and Bulgaria.
Attacks this month hit at least seven cargo ships off the coasts of the two countries, inside their exclusive economic zones. Three people were killed and at least 28 are missing. The strikes threaten a global shipping route and have raised concern that Russia intends to escalate the conflict, with a risk of drawing other countries directly into the war.
Bulgaria’s presidency is primarily ceremonial. The head of state has no executive powers, and major policies must be approved by Parliament, though direct election gives the president greater political authority. The president leads the armed forces, can veto legislation, signs international treaties and appoints ambassadors. Presidents are elected for a five-year term and may serve no more than two terms.
Analysts expect none of the 27 candidates to win outright on Sunday. Turnout must exceed 50 percent of 6.6 million registered voters, and the winner needs a majority. Sunday’s turnout is expected to be under 40 percent, which would mean a runoff on Nov. 1.
Incumbent Iliana Yotova, a 62-year-old journalist and former member of the European Parliament, is a front-runner. She served as vice president under Rumen Radev, now prime minister, during his two terms as head of state. She took over the presidency in January 2026, when Radev stepped down to run for parliament, and is seeking her own mandate. She is running as an independent with the official backing of Radev’s center-left Progressive Bulgaria, which won April’s general election in a landslide, and of the Socialist Party, where her career began.
Her main challenger is economist Andrei Gyurov, a former deputy governor of the central bank and caretaker prime minister in the early months of 2026. He is supported by the pro-Western reformist opposition. Observers believe his best chance would come in a runoff. A Yotova victory would keep the presidency with the ruling majority, a departure from Bulgaria’s post-communist history.
Bulgaria joined NATO in 2004 and the European Union in 2007. There is a broad consensus in Parliament on a pro-Western path, while pro-Russian sentiments rooted in historical and cultural ties have divided society since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Radev has said he would keep Bulgaria on its European path while calling for improved relations with Russia and the lifting of sanctions. Analysts expect Yotova to continue that policy.
Dobromir Zhivkov, managing director of the Market Links polling agency, told The Associated Press that Yotova belongs to the political class that advocates a more neutral position for Bulgaria. “They call for an end to aid for Ukraine and a halt to arms deliveries to Ukraine; we often hear them use Kremlin rhetoric and terminology borrowed directly from Kremlin propaganda,” he said.
Addressing supporters at a rally this week, Yotova said the war in Ukraine was one of the main points of divergence from her opponents and that she advocated peace through negotiations rather than force. “Do we want the Black Sea to become a closed military zone? We will categorically not agree to such a decision. I will not accept this warmongering,” she said.
Candidates are also addressing public fears about the steep rise in energy prices and surging inflation, with many Bulgarians in rural areas struggling to make ends meet.
A Market Links poll conducted Oct. 13-19 among 1,006 Bulgarians, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points, gave Yotova 47.3 percent and Gyurov 30.6 percent. If she wins, Yotova would become Bulgaria’s first elected female president.