Bulgaria holds the first round of its presidential election on Sunday, 25 October, in a contest that will show how far the country moves toward Moscow six months after a similar political signal. The result will decide whether Prime Minister Rumen Radev, widely regarded as close to Moscow and described at European level as the EU’s new Viktor Orban, effectively controls the main levers of the state. Drone attacks on ships in the Black Sea have put relations with Russia and NATO back at the centre of the campaign.
Iliana Iotova, a close associate of Radev who became president after his resignation, faces pro-European opposition candidate Andrei Gyurov. The latest poll by the Myara agency puts Iotova on 43.4 percent and Gyurov on 28.9 percent. Kostadin Kostadinov of the radical pro-Russian Revival party is on 10.2 percent. A second round is almost certain, and turnout is estimated at about 38–40 percent. A first-round winner needs more than half of the votes cast, and only if more than half of all eligible voters take part.
Two weeks ago Iotova’s lead over Gyurov was seven percentage points larger. The gap narrowed as attention in Sofia turned to the Black Sea. Over the past month several ships were sunk in Bulgarian and Romanian territorial waters after drone strikes.
Bulgarian outlet Mediapool says there is no fundamental ideological split between Iotova and Radev on Russia, Ukraine, or ending the war through negotiations. Iotova has generally taken a similar line to Radev, including opposition to military support for Ukraine. She first argued that Bulgaria should not blame a particular country without conclusive evidence. Radev also said the evidence was insufficient to accuse a specific party, while acknowledging that the attacks appeared to benefit Russia. He later summoned the Russian ambassador and took a firm stance. Iotova subsequently accepted the European Council’s conclusion that Russia was responsible.
Iotova has called for a diplomatic initiative of all six Black Sea countries, including Russia and Ukraine, toward a possible moratorium on drones in the maritime area. She has also proposed urgent consultations with Romania and Turkey to improve navigation safety and protect critical infrastructure, and she says Bulgaria should take an active role in efforts to end the war, with any blame for individual attacks based on evidence. Gyurov has framed the war as Russian aggression, asked for consultations under Article 4 of the NATO treaty, backed continued assistance to Ukraine and called for tougher sanctions on Russia. Article 4 gives allies a formal setting to discuss threats to their security and possible responses.
Mediapool reports that Sofia sees Romania as an important partner in the Black Sea safety debate. On 14 October Iotova and Romanian President Nicușor Dan agreed that the two countries would work to establish a moratorium on attacks in the region. Dan said afterward that Romania and Bulgaria would cooperate closely to promote firmer counter-drone measures in the EU and NATO so commercial navigation in the Black Sea would be safer. The next day Radev and Dan met NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Brussels. The subject was security on the eastern flank after commercial ships were sunk by drones. Dan said Russian attempts to destabilize societies and reduce support for Ukraine were visible in Romania as well as in Bulgaria, and that the response was to keep supporting Ukraine.
Foreign policy remains primarily the government’s field, so an Iotova victory would continue Radev’s course without a domestic clash. A Gyurov victory would also threaten Radev’s government. Political scientist and former Bulgarian MEP Svetoslav Malinov told Mediapool he is convinced that a Gyurov win would create a new majority distinct from the one now in parliament and that the government would not serve out its term.
Iotova backed Radev when he opposed EU sanctions on Russian Patriarch Kirill and on Vagit Alekperov, the former owner of Lukoil. The EU later removed both from the list. Her public positions favour a diplomatic settlement and a more cautious approach to sanctions against Russia. She has also said Russia’s war against Ukraine has seriously worsened security in the Black Sea and supports initiatives that include a proposed moratorium on hostilities at sea.
Russian influence remains a constant concern in Bulgarian politics. Radev’s opposition to military aid for Ukraine, his criticism of some sanctions and his calls to resume dialogue with Moscow overlap many Kremlin narratives. Mediapool says Bulgarian media are particularly exposed to polarizing accounts of the war, sanctions, energy prices and the risk of a wider conflict, and that there is no evidence of a direct Russian financial contribution to this election.
Iotova, 62, is a former television presenter who built her career in the Bulgarian Socialist Party, the party of the former communists, which nominated Radev for president in 2016. She was a member of the European Parliament for ten years, from 2007 to 2017, and then vice president during Radev’s terms. Radev, 63, is a former fighter pilot and chief of the Bulgarian Air Force. After founding his own party he became the political favourite of nearly the entire pro-Russian electorate and of a large part of the traditional left, according to Mediapool. At the latest parliamentary elections in 2026 the Bulgarian Socialist Party failed to enter parliament for the first time in its history. Radev won an absolute parliamentary majority with more than 44 percent of the vote, formed a single-party government with a four-year mandate and ended a five-year political crisis, while refusing to support Ukraine openly. An Iotova presidency could leave practically all power for the next few years with his Progressive Bulgaria party. Political opponents warn about that concentration of power.
Gyurov, 50, is a financier, a former deputy governor of the Bulgarian National Bank and a former MP for the liberal We Continue the Change party. He is known for pro-EU and pro-NATO views and centrist economic positions. In early 2026 he served three months as interim prime minister. His government was praised by almost all parties for organizing what were described as the fairest parliamentary elections in recent years, and he worked against vote-buying. Mediapool says his support so far is largely limited to pro-European and liberal voters in the big cities.
Under the 1991 constitution, executive authority belongs to the government and the president is meant to be an apolitical figure representing national unity. The office still has strong tools. The president offers the mandate to form a government after parliamentary elections, sets the investiture calendar and must step in when majorities collapse. The president can call early general elections and appoint a transitional caretaker government, choosing a prime minister from a constitutionally designated list of senior officials. Bulgaria held eight rounds of parliamentary elections during the 2021–2026 crisis. As president, Radev repeatedly helped form governments and triggered early elections when politics deadlocked. In 2026 he resigned the presidency, founded Progressive Bulgaria and won the parliamentary election that ended the crisis. The president also formally appoints ambassadors, military commanders and intelligence chiefs, with government approval, issues the final decrees naming the presidents of the supreme courts and the prosecutor general, and directly selects one third of the judges of the Constitutional Court. The president cannot draft laws but may send a bill back to parliament once and may refer it to the Constitutional Court.