More than 51 million Americans have already voted before the US elections begin, an absolute record for midterm contests. On Tuesday, the vote decides who controls Congress in the last two years of Donald Trump’s term, after two years in which the Republicans held both chambers.
Current forecasts favour the Democrats. They are clear favourites to win the House of Representatives. In the Senate, where they need four seats taken from the Republicans, most models also give them the advantage. Democrats lead in polls even in places where they have not won a Senate seat for nearly a century.
What is moving votes is the household budget: the economy, health and the war with Iran, which Americans feel directly in the price of gasoline. The president has turned the election into an open referendum on himself and has asked voters to vote as if he were on the ballot. That strategy mobilises his base and also mobilises his opponents.
The Democrats’ lead in early voting does not automatically mean victory. Republicans are expected to turn out heavily on election day, and polls have underestimated Donald Trump’s electorate more than once.
For Romania, the essential question is what changes on the eastern flank. A Congress controlled by Democrats could speed aid to Ukraine and signal firmer support for NATO. Foreign policy remains in the president’s hands, and allied diplomats do not expect Tuesday’s vote to change the Pentagon’s assessment of American troops in Europe, which is expected in December.
On Tuesday, Americans are choosing a Congress and also how freely Donald Trump will govern until the end of his term.